2026 PC & Smartphone Shortages: AI Chips Squeeze Supply

IDC data shows that global shipments of PCs and smartphones fell year over year in Q2 2026. PC shipments dropped 4.9%. Smartphone shipments declined 6.7%. This reverses the steady growth seen in 2024 and 2025. IDC expects shipments to keep falling in 2026. It forecasts PCs down 11.3% for the year and smartphones down 13.9%.

What’s Causing the PC and Smartphone Shortages?

The decline is not mainly about weak demand. Supply is the constraint. Surging AI semiconductor demand is absorbing memory, processors, and other key parts. That leaves fewer components for consumer electronics.

Major Tech Firms Confirm Supply Constraints

Apple wrote in its 10-Q for the quarter ending March 2026 that it faces supply constraints and higher component costs, including advanced semiconductors, NAND storage, and DRAM. HP said on its earnings call for the quarter ending April 2026 that memory and storage costs rose in Q2 and should keep rising in the second half. Dell said on its earnings call for the quarter ending May 2026 that it expects to be supply constrained in the second half and that demand is not the issue.

Shifting US Tech Import Patterns

At the same time, US consumer-electronics imports have shifted by country. US political pressure and tariff changes have pushed production away from China.

PC Production Relocation

In 2022, China supplied 92% of US PC imports. By 2025, that share fell to 19%. Vietnam rose to 60% of US PC imports. Major brands such as HP, Lenovo, Apple, Asus, and Quanta have moved part of their production from China to Vietnam and other locations.

Smartphone Import Shifts

US smartphone imports show a similar pattern. China’s share fell from 79% in 2022 to 40% in 2025. India’s share rose from 2% to 39% over the same period. In the first five months of 2026, import value from India was more than double China’s. Brands producing in India include Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo.

Booming AI Processor Imports Highlight AI Industry Dominance

US imports of HTS category 84150 (digital processing units without input/output devices) have surged. They rose from $37B in 2023 to $165B in 2025. That is higher than the combined $109B value of US smartphone and PC imports in 2025. Mexico accounts for 49% of these imports. Taiwan accounts for 42%.

Nvidia AI processors Lead Import Growth

HTS category 847150 is dominated by Nvidia AI processors. Imports grew more than 4x from 2023 to 2025. That roughly matches Nvidia’s 3.5x revenue growth over the same period. Nvidia’s AI chips are made by TSMC in Taiwan. Foxconn assembles modules in Mexico and sells them to AI system makers.

When Will PC smartphone supply constraints 2026 End?

Import data suggests AI workloads are currently the top priority for chip supply. PCs and smartphones depend heavily on memory and processors, so shortages may persist. The AI boom also shows no clear sign of slowing soon. Micron and Samsung are increasing capex to expand memory output. But new capacity takes time to build. Analysts expect the shortage could take at least two years to ease. It may require more capacity, slower AI demand, or both.

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